China & Russia Deploy New Missile

Chinese missiles can reach U.S. with nuclear warheads.

U.S. defense officials have confirmed that China is preparing to test a new missile capable of delivering nuclear warheads directly to the United States.

The Chinese Army Second Artillery Corps is preparing to test its new Dong Feng 31, or "East Wind," ICBM during the next few days. The DF-31 reportedly can carry a single 3-megaton H-bomb or three 90-kiloton nuclear warheads. The missile has an official range of over 4,800 miles.

The Dong Feng 31 reportedly is equipped with U.S. missile and warhead technology that was obtained by China through espionage and legal and illegal technology transfers from the Clinton administration. It is expected that the Chinese army will declare the DF-31 operational within the next 12 months.

Chinese Navy Missile

The new PLA long-range weapon test comes only days after a Chinese navy test of a similar submarine-launched nuclear-tipped missile. The China navy test of a Julang 2, or "Great Wave," missile took place three weeks ago in an area located off the coast of north central China.

U.S. intelligence sources recorded a "pop-up" test of the JL-2 from a specially modified Chinese Golf-class diesel submarine. The test simulated the first step in a submarine-launched ballistic missile firing by ejecting the missile from its tube. In an actual launch, the missile's engine would be ignited after clearing the submarine.

The Chinese navy plans to deploy the JL-2 missile aboard China's newest ballistic missile submarine, known as the Type 094. The Chinese navy reportedly will take command of the first JL-2-equipped Type 094 submarine in the next 12 months.

"From open sources, one cannot assess the real range of the JL-2," noted Richard Fisher, a senior fellow and defense analyst at the Jamestown Foundation.

"Most sources note it is the sea-borne counterpart to the DF-31, which is credited with a 8,000 km (4,800 mile) range. However, there is some unconfirmed reporting that the JL-2 may have longer range."

U.S. Navy sources expressed concern that a JL-2-armed submarine could sail to within a few hundred miles of the U.S. West Coast. Such a move would place West Coast cities at "point-blank" range, enabling the Chinese submarine to shower Los Angeles or San Francisco with nuclear warheads. The move would also place most – if not all – U.S. cities within range of the H-bomb-equipped missile.

"It is likely that the goal for the JL-2 is to be able to reach the western U.S. from the Yellow Sea, an area that the PLA can defend with near-current ship and aircraft resources. But of course, if the Type 094 SSBN is able to reach launch points outside this area, the JL-2's reach will increase," stated Fisher.

"India also fears this new SLBM, as it expects that the PLA will produce enough Type 094 SSBNs to pose a credible second strike presence in the Indian Ocean," noted Fisher.

New Russian Missile The Chinese missile tests are taking place at the same time Russia is trying to sell a new supersonic land attack missile. Russian missile maker NPO Mashinostroyenia announced in October that it was introducing a new version of the SS-N-26 Yahont cruise missile.

The Yahont ramjet-powered missile can reach targets up to 162 nautical miles away at speeds in excess of 1,500 miles an hour. The Yahont was originally designed to be an anti-ship attack missile, but NPO Mash is now offering a new version called the Yahont-M that can strike land targets with "extreme accuracy."

The deadly Yahont missile is being offered for sale to Iran, India and China. The missile can be air-launched, sea-launched or even launched from a submerged submarine through a torpedo tube. The Yahont reportedly flies at treetop level at a blistering speed of over 2.6 times the speed of sound.

NPO Mash is offering the Yahont-M in combination with the Kondor-E targeting satellite. Russian officials are offering to sell high-resolution satellite data to program the Yahont missile for land targets or even turn over a complete Kondor-E satellite with a radar designation targeting system.

The space-based targeting combination is being offered for export "to countries that lack the over-the-horizon targeting capability" required to operate the Yahont.

China and Iran in Space

U.S. officials are concerned because China reportedly may arm newly-purchased Russian navy vessels with the deadly Yahont missile. While China may not elect to purchase the Kondor-E satellite, it can easily modify a newly-developed SMMS imaging satellite to supply the same space-based targeting information.

According to U.S. defense officials, China and Iran are jointly developing the SMMS, or small multi-mission spacecraft. The 1,034-lb. satellite will carry a low-resolution CCD camera and telecommunications systems.

Iranian space engineers were in Beijing in September reviewing progress on the joint space satellite program. The SMMS satellite is scheduled for launch in 2004 atop a Chinese booster rocket.

China already has a mature medium resolution space imaging satellite program. However, the SMMS will allow the PRC and Iran to improve missile targeting and autonomous military reconnaissance. China has reportedly also offered similar military satellite capabilities to Pakistan.

An old article from the BBC (July 6, 2000):

US missiles: China's view By James Miles:

Should the United States decide to go ahead with the deployment of a National Missile Defence (NMD) system, the country's relations with China would undoubtedly be seriously undermined.

This could lead to heightened tensions over a range of issues from weapons proliferation to Taiwan.

But it is unlikely that China's own plans to modernise its nuclear arsenal would be substantially affected. Despite US attempts to justify the NMD programme by citing threats from 'rogue' states such as North Korea, Iran and Iraq, Beijing, in public at least, describes it as nothing other than a disguised attempt to render China's small nuclear arsenal useless as deterrent against the United States.

It is believed that China has only about 20 intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of hitting targets across the United States and another 20 or so that could reach the US northwest and northern Pacific. If the NMD system works as advertised these could easily be knocked out.

In practice, however, these particular missiles have long been of little if any deterrent value as far as the US is concerned. They are located in silos that are vulnerable to pre-emptive strike, whether nuclear or conventional. They are powered by volatile liquid fuel which is stored separately from the rockets.

Furthermore, China does not have the early warning capability to detect a nuclear attack in time to launch its ICBMs before they are knocked out.

'New generation'

Beijing did not begin to deploy ICBMs capable of reaching America until the early 1980s. It had conducted its first successful nuclear test in 1964 at the height of the Sino-Soviet rift and indeed well into the 1980s it had continued to regard Russia as posing the biggest nuclear threat. It was only in the 1990s that the United States began to emerge in Beijing's view as the foremost potential enemy.

In order to make what it calls its "limited nuclear deterrent" force more credible, therefore, China has been engaged in recent years in a modernisation programme aimed at enabling its ICBMs to survive a pre-emptive strike and stand a reasonable chance of penetrating an adversary's defences.

This has involved developing the ability to fire the missiles from mobile launchers and equip them with multiple warheads. The new generation of Chinese ICBMs likely to be deployed within the coming decade will be solid fuelled and easier to launch at short notice.

It would have been naïve of China to engage in such an upgrading of its nuclear arsenal without building in the possibility that the US would deploy anti-ballistic missile systems. Should America go ahead with NMD deployment, therefore, China's plans are unlikely to be drastically altered.

It was already likely that China would increase the number of its long range warheads by a factor of 10 or more in the coming years. This would not impose a crippling economic burden on China and would remain consistent with its doctrine of "limited nuclear deterrence," i.e. maintaining only just enough nuclear weapons to deter a potential aggressor.

Chinese 'suspicions'

China has responded with similar anger towards US proposals for a Theatre Missile Defence system to protect its forces in East Asia, particularly towards suggestions that such a system should embrace Taiwan.

But again it is unlikely that actual deployment of TMD would lead to a major change in China's plans for missile deployment. Beijing has already positioned about 200 short range ballistic missiles on the coast facing Taiwan and the number is increasing by about 50 a year - easily enough to penetrate any missile defence system that the US might put in place.

Beijing would therefore regard an American decision to press ahead with NMD or TMD more as a political rather than a military challenge. At a time of growing suspicions in Beijing that Washington is bent on "containing" China and dominating the post Cold War order indefinitely, such a decision would be seen as further evidence of America's "hegemonistic" ambitions.

This could further damage the already deeply troubled relationship between Beijing and Washington and make it more difficult for the two sides to co-operate on key issues of concern to the United States, not least the handling of the Taiwan issue and the proliferation of missile and nuclear technology.

It is unlikely that China would respond by flagrantly violating international arms control agreements. But it would certainly feel even more inclined to exploit the grey areas of such accords as US officials believe it does at present by transferring missile technology to Pakistan and Iran.

It seemed like an ordinary morning, as he tuned his receiver to the station and began transcribing what he heard. At 8 a.m. he received the message he had been waiting for. It seemed to be nothing more than a regional weather forecast, the kind that the stations he monitored transmitted every day during their news broadcasts. But Briggs, alone among the radio operators at Cheltenham, knew what the three words meant. They meant that the world was going to change in unpredictable but cataclysmic ways. They meant that many of his friends and countrymen would soon be dead. They meant that America would never be the same again.
The three words were casually spoken during the regular news and weather feature from Radio Tokyo, Japan. The words were "East Wind, Rain." Briggs immediately teletyped the message to Washington. "East Wind, Rain" was one of three possible "execute" messages which Japanese diplomats around the world had been alerted to begin listening for on November 19th. They were told to monitor the regular news and weather broadcasts from Tokyo, just as they always did, but to pay especially careful attention to the phraseology employed to describe the weather.

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